So, How's the Iraq War going?

While democracy is coming along better than expected in Iraq, the war on this democratization by terrorist and Sunni insurrectionists will determine the country's future. So, how is the war going? The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at The Brookings Institution regularly publishes an Iraq Index that tracks trends in economic, public opinion, and security data, including crime, telephone and water service, troop fatalities, unemployment, Iraqi security forces, oil production, and coalition troop strength.

The latest index dated February 13, 2006, includes the following:

• Since April and November of 2004, when American troop fatalities from all causes reached 135 and 137 respectively, fatalities have been tending down. In November, December, and January 2005-2006, they were 84, 68, and 62.

• The monthly fatalities among Iraqi military and police are down since a high of 304 in July of 2005. The number killed last month was 189.

• The explosion of lethal and non-lethal car bombs is down since a high of 136 in May of 2005. There were 30 last month.

• The upper and lower bound of civilians killed in acts of war reached their greatest since May of 2003 (thus excluding those killed during the invasion) of 1,414 to 2,475 in September of last year and have fallen sharply since. Last month 418 to 732 were killed. Overall, 28,400 to 32,000 civilians have been killed since the start of the war. (No, not the 100,000 that is a Democrat talking number against the war)

• In multiple fatality bombings by IEDs and roadside bombs, the number kills has gone down from a high of 481 to 1074 last September to 305 to 397 last month.

• Non-Iraqi civilian contractors killed have trended down from a high of 31 in August 2004 to 11 last month.

• Attacks on Iraqi oil and gas pipelines, installations, and personnel are trending down from a high of 30 in November of 2004 to 10 last month.

• The number of daily attacks by "insurgents" trended upward until it reached 100 in October of last year and has trended downward since to 75 last month.

• As of last month, there were 227,800 Iraqi security force troops and police on duty. In July of 2003, the number was 30,000.

• Tips received from the population have gone up steadily to 483 in March of last year to 4,700 in September., the latest number.

• Compared to the estimated prewar level of 95k average megawatt hours of electricity, it has gone up from around 72k in August of 2003 to 89k this month.

• Compared to the prewar level:

nominal GDP has gone up from 20.5 $US billion to 29.3, GDP growth rate has gone from -7.8 to 3.7, and GDP per capita in $US from 802 to 1,051.

• Telephone subscriptions have gone up from 833k to 4,590k as of August 2005.

• Internet subscribers has gone up from 4.5k to 147k

• Commercial TV stations and Independent newspapers/magazines has gone up from 0 to 44, and >100, respectively, as of October 2005.

• Question of Iraqis:

Do you think Iraq today is headed in the right direction? Overall = 64%, Kurds = 76%, Shiia = 84%, and Sunni = 6%

• Thinking about any hardships you might have suffered since the
• U.S.-Britain invasion, do you personally think that ousting Saddam Hussein was worth it? Overall = 77%, Kurds = 91%, Shiia = 98%, and Sunni = 13%

• What is your overall support for attacks? On U.S. led forces = 47%, on Iraqi Govt. security forces = 7%, on Iraqi civilians = 1%

• October – November 2005: Time-ABC News Poll

• The percent agreeing that life is better since the war: Iraq = 51%, Kurdish area = 73%, Shiia area 59%, Baghdad area = 59% Sunni area = 25%

• The percent agreeing that the U.S. was right to invade Iraq: Iraq = 46%, Kurdish area = 80%, Shiia area 58%, Baghdad area = 47% Sunni area =16%

Overall, on the statistics alone, we are winning in Iraq. Then when one includes that there have been two fair and competitive elections, a fair referendum on a written constitution, the selection of a new Prime Minister, and a successful organization of a government, I argue that Iraq is a war and democratization that is going well.

Related Links

"U.S. Official: Iraq Has 'Good Start' in Reconstruction":

Steve Inskeep talks with Stewart Bowen, an independent inspector general, who released his latest quarterly assessment Monday. Bowen says the money allotted for Iraq reconstruction has put the country's infrastructure on the road to restoration.

"Iraq - The Failure of the Press":

Opinion about Iraq splits along political lines. Republicans maintain that the going is tough but we are making real progress. Most Democrats feel that we are wading deeper into quicksand. The public understandably wants an objective source of information about Iraq. That should be the American press, but it isn’t.

"USA TODAY/CNN GALLUP POLL": Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18+, conducted Jan. 20-22, 2006.

Q: In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not? A: Yes, a mistake == 51%, No, not = 46%, No opinion = 3%

"Bill Clinton calls Iraq 'big mistake'"

"Dean: U.S. can't win Iraq war":

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is drawing GOP fire after telling a Texas radio station that the idea the war in Iraq can be won is "just plain wrong."

"War Report"Select articles, documents, and analyses compiled and frequently updated by the Project on Defense Alternatives

The International Institute for Strategic Studies: Post-War Iraq: Analysis and Review

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Articles and Resources on Iraq

The Bookings Institution Resources and Analysis on Iraq

Academic Info: Iraq War -- Directory of Online Resources

The Heritage Foundation: Progress in Iraq -- Facts and Analysis